The Politicization of VNSAs in the Middle East

Abstract

This thesis investigates the lack of politicization of terrorist organizations in the Middle East, a finding derived from the End of Terror database on terrorist groups. This research was inspired by Jones and Libicki’s (2008) seminal work, How Terrorist Groups End, which coded the outcomes of 648 terrorist groups. My thesis looks at one of those outcomes: politicization. Politicization stands out among other outcomes due to its coincidence with regional characteristics of the Middle East, namely the lack of democracy in the region, failure to follow global trends, and the interplay between religion and governance. The lack of politicization is explored using analogical and empirical reasoning with supporting evidence from case studies. I also evaluate terrorism outcomes in relation to grand theories of democracy, state-building, and collective action to see how they compare with global trends. During the course of this research, several significant events pertinent to the topic have transpired: the Taliban's transition to the de facto ruler of Afghanistan (2021), the heightened role of Hamas in the War in Gaza (2023), and the entry of HTS into the Syrian government (2025). These events highlight the evolving nature of violent non-state actors in the region and warrant greater attention to their political identity. By no means do I condone the tools of senseless and often theatrical violence, brandished by said groups by reason of their political goals. Rather, I ask why they are so unsuccessful at entering the political institutions in their state if they are rational political actors.