Extreme Summertime Rainfall, Social Vulnerability, and Community Perceptions: A Multi-Method Assessment of Flood Risk

Abstract

The impacts of increasing summertime precipitation in the Midwest are of increasing concern, highlighting the urgent need for equitable and timely adaptation. The combination of increased population growth, development of urban suburban areas, and increase extreme precipitation expose more people to potential flooding conditions, one of the most common and costly natural hazards. However, the burdens of flood impacts are not equally distributed among all populations. This multi-method approach assesses both social and physical dimensions of vulnerability through summertime precipitation characterization, construction of a flood specific social vulnerability index (SOVI), and understanding community perspectives and preferences on flood management through surveys and interviews. Looking at precipitation patterns and changes, I note increasing summertime precipitation across annual, seasonal, and daily scales. Construction of general, flood focused, and community-based SOVIs showed increasing homogeneity of vulnerability in administratively derived maps and high perceived vulnerability in community informed maps. I also identified variations in vulnerability characterized by ethno-racial and socioeconomic differences across neighborhoods. From surveys & interviews, I learned that while locals mostly experience minor and nuisance floods, there is increasing awareness and concern regarding the potential short-and long-term impacts at individual and neighborhood levels. Outcomes from this work may be informative for local flood preparedness initiatives, improving risk communication programs and policies, and providing a starting point for prioritizing community perspectives in management and city planning.