A NO-NOTICE EVACUATION PLAN FOR THE UW-MADISON CAMPUS:Developing a Plan to Evacuate a University Campus using Microscopic Simulation and Traffic Demand Modeling
In the past twenty years the United States population has grown from just under 267 million to an appalling 320 million residents, a growth trend that is only expected to continue. The United States Census Bureau estimates that the country has a net gain of one person every fourteen seconds. At this startling rate of population increase the threat of a widespread evacuation caused by a manmade disaster looms, an even more daunting task than ever before. Unfortunately the University of Wisconsin-Madison is already too familiar with the regrettable existence of a manmade disaster. In 1970, UW-Madison?s Sterling Hall was attacked using a bomb planted in a van parked outside of the building. UW-Madison covers 936 acres in the city of Madison, Wisconsin and is home to over 43,000 students and over 21,000 faculty and staff. Currently, the university does not set guidelines or procedures for a no-notice evacuation. This statement is in no way meant to be a criticism, as most disasters necessitating an evacuation are highly unlikely to occur in Madison, Wisconsin such as a hurricane, wildfire, or massive flood. Considering these facts, one scenario on the UW-Madison campus that would require a no-notice evacuation if it occurred, is an imminent explosion such as the act of terrorism that took place at Sterling Hall in 1970. This study aims to find the best practice in a worst-case scenario in order to create an evacuation plan for UW-Madison?s campus area using three main methodologies: logistics analysis, a microscopic traffic simulation using VISSIM, and a traffic demand model. The VISSIM simulation will provide a descriptive simulation of the evacuation movements that will help identify major points of congestion in the network. Clearance times out of the evacuation perimeter will be evaluated utilizing different routes and optimal routes and volumes will be determined. The traffic demand model will provide an analysis of traffic generation, trip departure times, destination selection, and route assignment. These steps will create a model that will allow the completion of the final step of generating a specific plan, analyzing this plan, and making any necessary revisions. Through this analysis, major points of congestion and optimal routes will be identified in order to develop an evacuation plan for the UW-Madison campus. A detailed logistics analysis will be conducted considering class times, class enrollments, daytime populations of campus building and facilities, the percentage of personal vehicles available for use, alternative modes of transportation available for use, acceptable shelter locations and their capacities, and optimal routes among other factors. Additionally, some best practices will be suggested regarding communications, technical support, and resources to be included in an emergency management plan.