Testing a Market Hypothesis : the Counter-Cyclical Nature of Gold Prices

Abstract

One theory that has gotten a lot of attention is that gold is counter-cyclical to the overall stock market and is thus a good investment in a bear market. This study examines the relationship between the Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index and the price of gold between 1975 and 2011. It then examines the sensitivity of the price of gold to the level of volatility in the overall market as measured by the Chicago Board of Trade's volatility index (VIX) from 1990 through 2011.